Uncertainty & Value of Information

Terms for describing and quantifying uncertainty in economic evaluations and for valuing further research.

  • Topic: Uncertainty & Value of Information
  • 37 terms
  • Editor reviewed

5 terms

Scenario AnalysisScenario Testing, What-If Analysis

Scenario analysis evaluates how model results and decisions change across explicitly defined, internally coherent combinations of alternative assumptions, inputs, structures, or future conditions.

Second-Order UncertaintyDistributional Parameter Uncertainty, Hyperparameter Uncertainty

Uncertainty about the parameters of a probability distribution itself, such as its true mean and variance, distinct from the variability the distribution represents.

Sensitivity AnalysisSA, Robustness Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis Methods

Sensitivity analysis examines how conclusions change when uncertain inputs, assumptions or model structures are varied.

Sheffield Elicitation FrameworkSHELF, Sheffield Elicitation Protocol

A structured protocol eliciting probability distributions from a group of experts, combining individual assessment with facilitated group discussion toward a consensus.

Structural UncertaintyModel-Structure Uncertainty, Structural Model Uncertainty

Uncertainty about the appropriate form, pathways, states or mechanisms of a model, including plausible alternative structures that can change its predictions or decisions.