Terms for describing and quantifying uncertainty in economic evaluations and for valuing further research.
A parameter distribution is a probability model for the plausible values of an uncertain model input, specified from evidence and assumptions so its uncertainty can be propagated through an analysis.
Parameter uncertainty is uncertainty about the true values of quantities used as model inputs because those values are estimated from incomplete or imperfect evidence.
The expected value of perfect information calculated for an entire affected patient population over time, rather than for a single patient.
Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) characterises parameter uncertainty by assigning probability distributions to uncertain model inputs and propagating joint samples through the model.
The probability of cost-effectiveness is the model-based probability that an intervention meets a stated net-benefit criterion against specified alternatives at a given willingness-to-pay threshold under the assumed uncertainty distribution.