Base CaseBase-Case Scenario, Central Estimate
The set of central, best-estimate inputs used to produce a model's primary reported results, against which sensitivity analysis is later tested.
Uncertainty & Value of Information
Terms for describing and quantifying uncertainty in economic evaluations and for valuing further research.
- Topic: Uncertainty & Value of Information
- 37 terms
- Editor reviewed
Beta DistributionBeta Probability Distribution, Beta Density
A flexible probability distribution bounded between zero and one, commonly used to represent uncertainty in probability parameters.
Confidence EllipseJoint Confidence Region, CE-Plane Ellipse
A graphical region, typically on a cost-effectiveness plane, showing where the true joint value of incremental cost and effect is expected to fall.
Cost-Effectiveness Acceptability Curve (CEAC)Cost-Effectiveness Acceptability Curve, CEAC
A graph plotting the probability an intervention is cost-effective against a range of possible values for the cost-effectiveness threshold.
Decision UncertaintyDecision Risk, Probability of Wrong Decision
The probability that the currently preferred option in an evaluation is not actually the truly optimal choice, given uncertainty in the model's parameters.
Deterministic Sensitivity AnalysisDSA
Deterministic sensitivity analysis evaluates how a model's results and decisions change when selected inputs or assumptions are assigned specific alternative values while all other stated conditions are controlled.
Dirichlet DistributionDirichlet Prior, Multivariate Proportion Distribution
A multivariate distribution representing uncertainty in a set of proportions that must sum to one, such as transition probabilities from a state.
Expected Net Benefit of SamplingENBS, Net Value of Sampling
Expected net benefit of sampling is the expected population value of the decision improvement produced by a proposed sample, minus the financial and opportunity costs of obtaining that evidence.