Markov microsimulation is an individual-level state-transition modeling method that simulates each person's sequence of health states over time using transition probabilities that may depend on current state, personal characteristics, time, and explicitly retained history.
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A Markov model is a memoryless state-transition model used in economic evaluation: people move between health states each cycle, accruing costs and QALYs.
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The Marshallian demand curve is a demand curve showing how much of a good, such as health care, a person buys at each price with money income held fixed.
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A martingale residual is a patient's observed events minus those a fitted Cox survival model expected, used to check the functional form of covariates.
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Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) fits models such as survival curves by choosing the parameter values that make the observed data most probable.
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A measure of central tendency obtained, in its arithmetic form, by dividing the sum of values by their count; a population mean is the corresponding expected value.
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The arithmetic average of the absolute differences between numerical predictions and their corresponding observed values, expressed in the outcome’s units.
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The mean difference (MD) is the difference between two groups' average values on one continuous scale, the usual effect measure for continuous outcomes.
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Mean squared error is the average of squared differences between predictions or estimates and their corresponding observed or reference values, evaluated over a specified set or sampling process.
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Mechanism design uses game theory to set rules, such as auctions, tenders or matching schemes, under which self-interested choices serve a chosen goal.
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Mediation analysis is a statistical method that splits a treatment's effect on health or costs into a direct effect and an indirect effect via a mediator.
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Memorylessness is the property that the chance of the next event does not depend on time already waited, as in Markov models and exponential survival.
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The broad application of health economic evaluation to mental health conditions and treatment, spanning prevention, psychotherapy, medication, and specialist psychiatric services.
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The method of moments estimates a distribution's parameters by equating its mean and variance to observed values, often to fit decision model inputs.
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Metropolis-Hastings is a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that samples the posterior of health economic model inputs by accepting or rejecting proposals.
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Micro-costing is a costing method that lists each resource a health service uses, such as staff minutes and consumables, and values each with a unit cost.
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Microsimulation is a modelling method that follows simulated people one at a time, so each person's traits and past events shape their own costs and QALYs.
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Missing at random (MAR) is a missing data mechanism where, given observed data, the chance a cost or outcome is missing is unrelated to unseen values.
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Missing completely at random (MCAR) is a missing data mechanism in which the chance a cost or outcome is missing is unrelated to any data, seen or unseen.
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Unobserved or unavailable values required for a specified analysis, whose consequences depend on the pattern, mechanism and target estimand.
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