Markov Chain
A Markov chain is a random process moving between states in which the next state depends only on the current state. It underlies Markov cohort models.
Encyclopaedia
Explore comprehensive, evidence-informed explanations of key health economics concepts, including their development, application and relationships to other concepts. Published entries are validated through human expert review.
Concepts, entries and ontology terms
A concept page is a published entry on the wiki. Some concepts also have a full encyclopaedia article. The Health Economics Ontology (HEO) holds every concept, including dictionary terms without an article, so it is larger than the list of published pages. The knowledge graph shows how concepts relate to each other.
Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a set of simulation methods that draw correlated samples from the posterior of a Bayesian health economic model.
Markov Cohort Model
A Markov cohort model is a health economic model that moves a hypothetical cohort between health states each cycle to estimate expected costs and QALYs.
Markov Microsimulation
Markov microsimulation is an individual-level state-transition modeling method that simulates each person's sequence of health states over time using transition probabilities that may depend on current state, personal characteristics, time, and explicitly retained history.
Markov Model
A Markov model is a memoryless state-transition model used in economic evaluation: people move between health states each cycle, accruing costs and QALYs.
Martingale Residual
A martingale residual is a patient's observed events minus those a fitted Cox survival model expected, used to check the functional form of covariates.
Memorylessness
Memorylessness is the property that the chance of the next event does not depend on time already waited, as in Markov models and exponential survival.
Metropolis-Hastings
Metropolis-Hastings is a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that samples the posterior of health economic model inputs by accepting or rejecting proposals.
Microsimulation
Microsimulation is a modelling method that follows simulated people one at a time, so each person's traits and past events shape their own costs and QALYs.
Mixture Cure Model
A mixture cure model is a survival model treating patients as a cured group with only background mortality and an uncured group still at risk, used in HTA.
Mixture Model
A statistical model representing a population as a combination of two or more distinct subgroups, each following its own underlying distribution.
Model Averaging
Model averaging combines results from several plausible models, weighted by their support, so health economic estimates reflect doubt about model choice.
Model Diagnostics
Model diagnostics are checks that show whether a health economic model, or a statistical model feeding it, fits its data and behaves as intended.
Model Selection
The process of choosing a model from plausible alternatives using criteria suited to the intended question, data, predictive or explanatory performance, and decision context.
Model Validation
Model validation is the testing of a health economic model against expert review, other models and observed data to judge whether it is fit for a decision.
Monte Carlo Error
Monte Carlo error is the random numerical difference between a finite-simulation estimate and the target quantity it would approach with sufficiently many valid draws under the specified model.
Monte Carlo Integration
Monte Carlo integration estimates an integral, such as a model's expected cost or QALYs, by averaging the integrand over randomly sampled inputs.
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo simulation runs a health economic model many times on randomly sampled inputs to estimate expected costs and QALYs and their uncertainty.
Morris Method
A global sensitivity-screening method that samples one-input-at-a-time elementary effects across multiple model-input settings to identify influential or varying inputs.
Multi-Objective Optimisation
Multi-objective optimisation finds the efficient trade-offs when a health budget decision has conflicting goals, such as total QALYs and health equity.