Price-year adjustment of a cost with an inflation index

Moves a cost observed in price year a to price year b by multiplying it by the ratio of an appropriate price index in the two years. When the index is published as annual percentage increases, as the NHS Cost Inflation Index is, the index is built by chaining: each year's value is the previous value multiplied by one plus that year's increase. The NICE manual names the NHS Cost Inflation Index and the PSS Pay and Prices Index, both reported in the Unit Costs of Health and Social Care manual, or the ONS consumer price index.

Signature

C_b = C_a * I_b / I_a
Inputs
InputsDefinitionUnit
C_aCost as observed or reported in the prices of year acurrency in year a prices
I_bValue of the chosen price index in year bindex points
I_aValue of the same price index in year a, greater than zeroindex points
Output
C_bCost expressed in the prices of year bcurrency in year b prices

Function

Resource costing function

Maps the resources used by an option, and the unit cost of each, to a single cost expressed in one currency, one price year and one time basis. Costing identifies the resources that differ between options, measures how much of each is used and values each with a unit cost; costs from other years are moved to the common price year, and capital used over several years is spread as an equivalent annual cost. Future costs are then discounted, as set out on the Discount Rate page.

Try this function

Implementations

  • Excel

    Price-year adjustment from annual increases

    With the original cost in CostOriginal and the annual percentage increases between the two price years, as decimals, in AnnualIncreases, Excel chains the increases and returns the cost in the target year. PRODUCT evaluates the array directly in Excel 365; earlier versions need it entered as an array formula.

    =CostOriginal*PRODUCT(1+AnnualIncreases)

Assumptions

  • Index matched to the cost perspective

    The index reflects the price change of the resources being costed. The Unit Costs of Health and Social Care 2025 manual adjusts NHS unit costs with the NHS Cost Inflation Index and home care and nursing care costs with the PSS Pay and Prices Index excluding capital.

  • Adjustment for inflation only

    The ratio removes general or sector price change between years. It does not reflect changes in how a service is delivered, and it is separate from discounting, which converts costs falling in future years to present values.

Worked examples

  • One year of NHS cost inflation to 2024/25

    The NHS Cost Inflation Index overall rose by a provisional 4.02% in 2024/25. Setting the index at 100 for 2023/24 gives 104.02 for 2024/25, and a unit cost of 500 pounds in 2023/24 prices becomes 520.10 pounds, as in the article.

    C_a = 500; I_a = 100; I_b = 104.02; C_b = 520.10
  • Two chained years of NHS cost inflation

    From 2022/23 the overall index rose by 2.47% in 2023/24 and by a provisional 4.02% in 2024/25. Chaining the two increases from a base of 100 gives 106.589294, so 500 pounds in 2022/23 prices becomes about 532.95 pounds in 2024/25 prices.

    C_a = 500; I_a = 100; I_b = 106.589294; C_b = 532.95

Common errors

  • Applying only the latest year's increase

    Uprating a 2022/23 cost to 2024/25 prices with the 2024/25 increase alone gives 520.10 pounds instead of about 532.95 pounds. Every year between the two price years is included.

  • Treating inflation adjustment as discounting

    Indexing a cost to a later price year and discounting a future cost to present value answer different questions. A cost is first expressed in the common price year and then, if it falls in a future year of the model, discounted.

  • Leaving provisional index values unflagged

    The 2024/25 NHS Cost Inflation Index figures are provisional and will be revised in the next manual, so costs uprated with them are reported with the index edition used.

Sources

  • NICE requirement to adjust costs to the current price year

    National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. NICE technology appraisal and highly specialised technologies guidance: the manual (PMG36). Published 31 January 2022, last updated 31 March 2026. Chapter 4 Economic evaluation, section 4.4.12 (costs from previous years adjusted using inflation indices appropriate to the cost perspective, such as the NHS cost inflation index and the PSS pay and prices index from the unit costs report, or the ONS consumer price index).

    View source →

  • NHS Cost Inflation Index and PSS Pay and Prices Index

    Jones K, Weatherly H, Barker A, Birch S, Castelli A, Chalkley M, Dargan A, Findlay D, Hinde S, Markham S, Smith D, Teo H. Unit Costs of Health and Social Care 2025 Manual. Canterbury and York: Care and Outcomes Research Centre, University of Kent, and Centre for Health Economics, University of York; 2026. Section 12.1, table 12.1.1 (NHS Cost Inflation Index, annual percentage increases for NHS providers, including overall 2.47% for 2023/24 and a provisional 4.02% for 2024/25) and tables 12.1.2 to 12.1.4 (PSS Pay and Prices Index), and the scoping review article on the use of these indices to derive 2024/25 unit costs.

    View source →

  • Adjusting costs across time with price indices

    Tan-Torres Edejer T, Baltussen R, Adam T, Hutubessy R, Acharya A, Evans DB, Murray CJL, editors. Making choices in health: WHO guide to cost-effectiveness analysis. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2003. Section 3.2.6 (costs from other years adjusted to the base year in constant prices; measures of inflation including the consumer price index and the GDP deflator).

    View source →

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