Conditional least-cost selection

Identifies the alternative with the lowest total relevant cost after the evidence-equivalence condition has been satisfied.

Signature

j* = argmin_(j in J) C_j, conditional on G = 1
Inputs
InputsDefinitionUnit
C_jTotal relevant cost of alternative j under the stated perspective and time horizoncurrency per defined population or person
GIndicator equal to 1 only when reliable evidence establishes that decision-relevant outcomes do not differ meaningfullybinary indicator
Output
j*Feasible alternative with the lowest total relevant cost when G equals 1alternative identifier
  • J Set of feasible healthcare alternatives included in the comparison (set of alternatives)

Function

Equivalence-gated least-cost selection function

Selects the lowest-cost feasible healthcare alternative only when reliable evidence shows that all decision-relevant outcomes do not differ meaningfully.

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Implementations

  • Excel

    Return the least-cost option

    Excel returns the option name associated with the minimum total cost after the equivalence gate is confirmed.

    =IF(EquivalenceGate<>1,"CMA not valid",INDEX(OptionNames,MATCH(MIN(TotalCosts),TotalCosts,0)))

Assumptions

  • Equivalence evidence gate satisfied

    Reliable comparative evidence shows that plausible differences in every decision-relevant outcome are too small to change the decision.

  • Complete cost measurement

    Total cost includes every material resource difference permitted by the stated analytical perspective.

  • Consistent costing basis

    Alternatives use the same population, time horizon, currency, price year and applicable discounting convention.

  • Feasible alternatives

    Every alternative in the comparison is available and relevant to the healthcare decision.

Worked examples

  • Selecting the least-cost equivalent option

    Reliable equivalence evidence supports a costs-only comparison. Option A costs £1,250 per patient and Option B costs £1,100 per patient. Option B is selected as the least-cost alternative, saving £150 per patient.

    G = 1; argmin(1250,1100) = Option B

Common errors

  • Treating no significant difference as equivalence

    Failure to find a statistically significant difference in a superiority test does not establish that outcomes are equivalent and does not justify cost minimisation.

Sources

  • NICE Decision Support Unit report

    Wailoo A, Dixon S. The use of cost minimisation analysis for the appraisal of health technologies. NICE Decision Support Unit; 2019.

    View source

Canonical Identity

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