Terms for describing and quantifying uncertainty in economic evaluations and for valuing further research.
Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) characterises parameter uncertainty by assigning probability distributions to uncertain model inputs and propagating joint samples through the model.
The probability of cost-effectiveness is the model-based probability that an intervention meets a stated net-benefit criterion against specified alternatives at a given willingness-to-pay threshold under the assumed uncertainty distribution.
The process of deciding which research studies to fund first, given limited resources, informed by formal value of information methods.
Scenario analysis evaluates how model results and decisions change across explicitly defined, internally coherent combinations of alternative assumptions, inputs, structures, or future conditions.
Uncertainty about the parameters of a probability distribution itself, such as its true mean and variance, distinct from the variability the distribution represents.
Sensitivity analysis examines how conclusions change when uncertain inputs, assumptions or model structures are varied.
A structured protocol eliciting probability distributions from a group of experts, combining individual assessment with facilitated group discussion toward a consensus.
Uncertainty about the appropriate form, pathways, states or mechanisms of a model, including plausible alternative structures that can change its predictions or decisions.