Concept Architecture
Concept
Theoretically, Vaccine Efficacy (VE) is a quantitative measure of the reduction in disease risk among vaccinated individuals compared with unvaccinated individuals under ideal, controlled conditions, typically within a randomised controlled trial. It is founded on causal inference and comparative risk assessment, providing an estimate of the direct protective effect attributable to vaccination. Vaccine efficacy differs from vaccine effectiveness in that it measures biological protection under experimental conditions rather than routine clinical practice. In health economics, vaccine efficacy is a key input to early economic evaluations, transmission models and health technology assessments.
Mathematically, vaccine efficacy is expressed as the proportional reduction in disease incidence or risk among vaccinated participants relative to unvaccinated controls. It is commonly estimated from the relative risk observed in a clinical trial and reported as a percentage. Depending on the trial design and outcome measure, efficacy may also be estimated using incidence rate ratios or hazard ratios derived from survival analyses.
In practice, vaccine efficacy is estimated from Phase III randomised controlled trials by comparing disease occurrence between vaccinated and placebo or control groups over a predefined follow-up period. Statistical analyses adjust for sampling variability and may include subgroup analyses according to age, comorbidity or pathogen strain. In health economics, efficacy estimates are incorporated into decision-analytic models to estimate disease prevention, quality-adjusted life years gained, healthcare costs avoided and the cost-effectiveness of vaccination programmes.
Purpose
Used to quantify the direct protective effect of vaccination under controlled experimental conditions, supporting regulatory approval, clinical evaluation and health economic modelling of vaccination programmes.
Mathematical Formulae
Primary Formula
VE = (1 ? RR) ? 100%
Supporting Formulae
Using cumulative risk:
VE = (1 ? (Rv / Ru)) ? 100%
where:
Rv = risk among vaccinated participants
Ru = risk among unvaccinated participants
Using incidence rates:
VE = (1 ? IRR) ? 100%
Using hazard ratio:
VE = (1 ? HR) ? 100%
Related Mathematical Methods
- Relative Risk
- Incidence Rate Ratio
- Hazard Ratio
- Survival Analysis
- Cox Proportional Hazards Model
- Randomised Controlled Trial Analysis
- Maximum Likelihood Estimation
Example
A Phase III vaccine trial enrols 20,000 vaccinated participants and 20,000 placebo participants.
Confirmed disease cases:
Vaccinated = 50
Placebo = 200
Risk among vaccinated participants:
Rv = 50 � 20,000 = 0.0025
Risk among placebo participants:
Ru = 200 � 20,000 = 0.0100
Relative risk:
RR = 0.0025 � 0.0100 = 0.25
Vaccine efficacy:
VE = (1 ? 0.25) ? 100%
VE = 75%
The vaccine reduces disease risk by 75% under controlled trial conditions.
Excel Implementation
| Function | Example Formula | Health Economics Application |
|---|---|---|
| IF | =(1-(VaccinatedRisk/ControlRisk))*100 | Calculates vaccine efficacy from trial data. |
| COUNT | =COUNT(CaseRange) | Counts disease cases within treatment groups. |
| SUM | =SUM(CaseRange) | Calculates total disease events. |
| AVERAGE | =AVERAGE(VaccineEfficacyRange) | Summarises efficacy estimates across studies. |
| LOG | =LN(RelativeRisk) | Supports estimation of confidence intervals and regression analyses. |
VBA (Optional)
VBA can automate calculation of vaccine efficacy across multiple clinical trials and generate comparative reports for health economic and regulatory analyses.
Sources
- Halloran ME, Longini IM, Struchiner CJ. Design and Analysis of Vaccine Studies.
- Orenstein WA, Bernier RH, Dondero TJ, et al. Field evaluation of vaccine efficacy. Bulletin of the World Health Organization.
- Plotkin SA, Orenstein WA, Offit PA, Edwards KM. Plotkin's Vaccines.
- Rothman KJ, Greenland S, Lash TL. Modern Epidemiology.
- Drummond MF, Sculpher MJ, Claxton K, Stoddart GL, Torrance GW. Methods for the Economic Evaluation of Health Care Programmes.
- Briggs A, Claxton K, Sculpher M. Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation.
Related Concepts (2)
Library
Publications
1
Methods for Health Economic Evaluation of Vaccines and Immunization Decision Frameworks: A Consensus Framework from a European Vaccine Economics Community — Ultsch, Damm, Beutels, Bilcke, et al., Vol. 34, No. 3 ed., 2016 (PharmacoEconomics)
A consensus framework on the immunisation-specific methodological issues in economic evaluation of vaccines — herd/indirect effects, discounting, dynamic transmission modelling — developed to support national vaccine HTA guidelines in Europe.
Journal ArticleView source →
Frequently Asked Questions (6)
What is vaccine efficacy?
The degree to which a vaccine reduces disease risk among vaccinated individuals under the controlled conditions of a clinical trial.
Source: Institute of Medicine. Initial National Priorities for Comparative Effectiveness Research. National Academies Press; 2009. doi:10.17226/12648.
Under what conditions is vaccine efficacy measured?
Vaccine efficacy measures how well a vaccine reduces disease risk among vaccinated people under the controlled conditions of a clinical trial. In that setting, doses are given correctly, participants are selected and monitored, and storage is assured, so efficacy shows what the vaccine can achieve when everything is done ideally. It is the counterpart to effectiveness, which measures performance in messy real-world use, and it usually gives the higher figure of the two. A vaccine's protection under ideal trial conditions is what it captures. The Institute of Medicine describes such measures.
Source: Institute of Medicine
How is vaccine efficacy measured?
Vaccine efficacy is measured in a clinical trial by comparing the disease risk among vaccinated participants with that among unvaccinated or control participants under the trial's controlled conditions, showing the reduction in risk the vaccine provides. So vaccine efficacy is measured by comparison under trial conditions, which is why it reflects the controlled setting, since a trial compares vaccinated and control groups to determine the reduction in disease risk, and measuring efficacy this way, under controlled conditions, provides evidence of the vaccine's protective effect in the ideal setting of the trial, forming part of the evidence for the vaccine's approval and use.
Source: Institute of Medicine 2009
How does vaccine efficacy differ from vaccine effectiveness?
Vaccine efficacy differs from vaccine effectiveness in the conditions of measurement: efficacy measures the reduction in disease risk under the controlled conditions of a clinical trial, while effectiveness measures it under real-world conditions in a general population. So efficacy and effectiveness differ in trial versus real-world conditions, which is why the two can differ, since a trial's controlled setting differs from everyday use, and efficacy reflects the vaccine's performance under ideal trial conditions whereas effectiveness reflects its performance in actual practice, making the distinction important for understanding both the vaccine's proven protective effect and its real-world impact.
Source: Institute of Medicine 2009
Why is vaccine efficacy measured in trials?
Vaccine efficacy is measured in trials because the controlled conditions of a trial allow the vaccine's protective effect to be assessed rigorously by comparing vaccinated and control groups, providing clear evidence of how well it reduces disease risk. So vaccine efficacy is measured in trials for rigorous evidence, which is why controlled conditions are used, since a trial's design allows the reduction in disease risk attributable to the vaccine to be determined reliably, and measuring efficacy under these conditions provides the evidence of the vaccine's protective effect needed for its approval, before its real-world effectiveness is assessed in practice.
Source: Institute of Medicine 2009
Why is vaccine efficacy important?
Vaccine efficacy is important because it provides rigorous evidence, from controlled trials, of how well a vaccine reduces disease risk, forming part of the basis for its approval and expectations of its performance. So vaccine efficacy matters as trial evidence of protection, which is why it is measured, since establishing the vaccine's protective effect under controlled conditions is needed to support its approval and use, and knowing the efficacy provides a rigorous measure of the vaccine's ability to reduce disease, which, together with real-world effectiveness, informs the understanding of how well the vaccine works and its value.
Source: Institute of Medicine 2009
Trust Record
Verified by Dr Darrin Baines
British health economist
Professional identity: darrinbaines.org
Verification date: 7 May 2026
Content version: 1.0.0
Canonical Identity
- Persistent URI
- https://healtheconomics.wiki/concept/vaccine-efficacy
- Term code
- HE-PE-ID-077
Stable URI · Machine-readable · Resolvable · CC BY 4.0