VerifiedEvidence: highv1.0.0

Vaccine Effectiveness

The degree to which a vaccine reduces disease risk under real-world conditions in a general population, unlike efficacy measured under trial conditions.

Last reviewedDarrin Baines IP Ltd

Concept Architecture

Concept


Theoretically, Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) is a quantitative measure of the reduction in disease occurrence among vaccinated individuals compared with unvaccinated individuals under real-world conditions. Unlike vaccine efficacy, which is estimated under controlled clinical trial conditions, vaccine effectiveness reflects vaccine performance in routine clinical practice where adherence, population characteristics and pathogen exposure vary. In health economics, vaccine effectiveness is a key parameter in transmission models and economic evaluations because it directly influences health outcomes, healthcare utilisation and programme value.

Mathematically, vaccine effectiveness is expressed as the proportional reduction in disease risk associated with vaccination. The measure is commonly estimated from relative risks, incidence rate ratios, odds ratios or hazard ratios obtained from observational studies or pragmatic trials. Under the rare disease assumption, odds ratios provide an approximation to relative risk, allowing vaccine effectiveness to be estimated from case-control studies.

In practice, vaccine effectiveness is estimated using cohort studies, case-control studies, test-negative study designs and surveillance systems. Statistical estimation commonly employs regression models that adjust for confounding factors such as age, comorbidities and healthcare-seeking behaviour. In health economics, vaccine effectiveness estimates are incorporated into cost-effectiveness analyses, budget impact models and dynamic transmission models to predict disease prevention, quality-adjusted life years gained and healthcare cost savings.

Purpose


Used to quantify the reduction in disease risk attributable to vaccination under routine conditions, supporting immunisation policy, epidemiological evaluation and health economic assessment of vaccination programmes.


Mathematical Formulae

Primary Formula

VE = (1 ? RR) ? 100%

Supporting Formulae

Using incidence rates:

VE = (1 ? (Iv / Iu)) ? 100%

where:

Iv = incidence among vaccinated individuals

Iu = incidence among unvaccinated individuals

Using odds ratio:

VE = (1 ? OR) ? 100%

Using hazard ratio:

VE = (1 ? HR) ? 100%

Related Mathematical Methods

  • Relative Risk
  • Odds Ratio
  • Hazard Ratio
  • Logistic Regression
  • Cox Proportional Hazards Model
  • Poisson Regression
  • Survival Analysis

Example

During an influenza season:

Incidence among vaccinated individuals = 20 cases per 1,000 people

Incidence among unvaccinated individuals = 80 cases per 1,000 people

Relative risk:

RR = 20 � 80 = 0.25

Vaccine effectiveness:

VE = (1 ? 0.25) ? 100%

VE = 75%

The vaccine reduced the risk of influenza by 75% under routine clinical conditions.


Excel Implementation

FunctionExample FormulaHealth Economics Application
IF=(1-(VaccinatedIncidence/UnvaccinatedIncidence))*100Calculates vaccine effectiveness from incidence data.
SUM=SUM(CasesRange)Calculates total disease cases within study groups.
COUNT=COUNT(PopulationRange)Determines the population denominator.
AVERAGE=AVERAGE(VaccineEffectivenessRange)Summarises effectiveness estimates across studies or seasons.
LOG=LN(RelativeRisk)Supports regression and confidence interval calculations.

VBA (Optional)

VBA can automate calculation of vaccine effectiveness from surveillance datasets and generate comparative analyses across vaccines, pathogens and population subgroups.


Sources

  • Orenstein WA, Bernier RH, Dondero TJ, et al. Field evaluation of vaccine efficacy. Bulletin of the World Health Organization.
  • Halloran ME, Longini IM, Struchiner CJ. Design and Analysis of Vaccine Studies.
  • Rothman KJ, Greenland S, Lash TL. Modern Epidemiology.
  • WHO. Evaluation of COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness.
  • Briggs A, Claxton K, Sculpher M. Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation.
  • Drummond MF, Sculpher MJ, Claxton K, Stoddart GL, Torrance GW. Methods for the Economic Evaluation of Health Care Programmes.

Library

Media

1
  • Media

    Infectious Disease Modelling Specialization — Imperial College London, 3-course specialization ed., 2023 (Coursera)

    An Imperial College London specialization introducing mathematical modelling of infectious disease in R — compartmental and dynamic transmission models — foundational for the economic evaluation of vaccines and control programmes.

Frequently Asked Questions (6)

  • What is vaccine effectiveness?

    The degree to which a vaccine reduces disease risk under real-world conditions in a general population, unlike efficacy measured under trial conditions.

    Source: Institute of Medicine. Initial National Priorities for Comparative Effectiveness Research. National Academies Press; 2009. doi:10.17226/12648.

  • What does vaccine effectiveness measure in everyday use?

    Vaccine effectiveness measures how well a vaccine reduces the risk of disease in everyday use, among the general population under ordinary conditions. It captures the vaccine's real-world performance, which can fall short of the efficacy measured in a trial, because in practice storage may be imperfect, people may miss doses, and those vaccinated differ from the selected trial participants. This makes it the truer guide to what a vaccine actually achieves once rolled out. Real-world protection from a vaccine is what it captures. The Institute of Medicine describes such measures.

    Source: Institute of Medicine

  • How does vaccine effectiveness differ from vaccine efficacy?

    Vaccine effectiveness differs from vaccine efficacy in the conditions of measurement: effectiveness measures the reduction in disease risk under real-world conditions in a general population, while efficacy measures it under the controlled conditions of a clinical trial. So effectiveness and efficacy differ in real-world versus trial conditions, which is why the two can differ, since real-world use involves varied populations and conditions unlike the controlled setting of a trial, and effectiveness reflects how the vaccine performs in actual practice, whereas efficacy reflects its performance under ideal trial conditions, making the distinction important for understanding a vaccine's real-world impact.

    Source: Institute of Medicine 2009

  • Why is vaccine effectiveness measured in real-world conditions?

    Vaccine effectiveness is measured in real-world conditions because how well a vaccine works in actual use, among a general population under everyday conditions, can differ from its performance in a controlled trial, so real-world measurement shows its practical impact. So vaccine effectiveness is measured in real-world conditions to capture actual performance, which is why it complements efficacy, since the varied populations and conditions of real use may affect how well the vaccine works, and measuring effectiveness in practice shows the vaccine's real-world impact, providing information beyond the efficacy measured under the ideal conditions of a trial.

    Source: Institute of Medicine 2009

  • Why might vaccine effectiveness differ from efficacy?

    Vaccine effectiveness might differ from efficacy because real-world conditions differ from trial conditions in factors such as the population vaccinated, how the vaccine is stored and administered, and other variables, which can affect how well the vaccine works in practice. So effectiveness may differ from efficacy owing to real-world factors, which is why the two are distinguished, since the controlled conditions of a trial may not match everyday use, and factors such as a more varied population or differences in delivery can make real-world effectiveness differ from the efficacy measured in a trial, making effectiveness important for understanding how the vaccine actually performs.

    Source: Institute of Medicine 2009

  • Why is vaccine effectiveness important?

    Vaccine effectiveness is important because it shows how well a vaccine actually reduces disease in real-world use, which is what matters for its impact on the population, complementing the efficacy measured in trials. So vaccine effectiveness matters for real-world impact, which is why it is measured, since the practical benefit of a vaccine depends on how it performs in actual use, and knowing its effectiveness in the general population under real conditions informs the assessment of its value and its contribution to controlling disease, providing information about real-world performance beyond what trial efficacy alone can show.

    Source: Institute of Medicine 2009

Trust Record

Verified by Dr Darrin Baines

British health economist

Professional identity: darrinbaines.org

Verification date: 7 May 2026

Content version: 1.0.0

Canonical Identity

Term code
HE-PE-ID-076

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