Transmission Probability
The likelihood that an infectious disease passes from an infected to a susceptible individual during a single contact between them.
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The likelihood that an infectious disease passes from an infected to a susceptible individual during a single contact between them.
A numerical integration technique approximating a definite integral by dividing the area under a curve into trapezoids and summing their areas.
Variation in the size or direction of a treatment's effect across different patients, so a trial's average effect may not fit any one person.
A modelling technique creating temporary, time-specific states a patient passes through in sequence, letting a Markov model approximate time-dependent risk.
An analysis varying two parameters together across a grid of combinations, typically shown as a contour plot or heat map of results.
The formal process of measuring how much confidence should be placed in a model's results, given the sources of uncertainty affecting it.
A hazard function that rises to a single peak and then declines over follow-up, rather than a monotonic or bathtub pattern.
A numerical value representing the relative desirability of a specific health state, used to weight time in that state for QALYs.
A framework quantifying the expected benefit of reducing decision uncertainty, comparing expected outcomes under current uncertainty against outcomes if it were resolved.
The application of value of information methods to a health economic decision, typically used to judge whether further research is worth conducting.
Statistical techniques, including antithetic variates and control variates, used to reduce a Monte Carlo simulation's statistical variability for a given number of iterations.
Global sensitivity analysis techniques, including Sobol indices, decomposing total output variance into components attributable to each parameter and their interactions.
A table showing each parameter's variance and the covariance between each pair, summarising both individual uncertainty and interdependence among model inputs.
An abbreviation for value of information analysis, applying formal decision-theoretic methods to quantify the expected benefit of reducing decision uncertainty.
A statistical test assessing whether an estimated parameter differs significantly from a specified value, based on the ratio of estimate to standard error.
A flexible probability distribution capable of a monotonically increasing or decreasing hazard rate depending on its shape parameter.
A survival model based on the Weibull distribution, representing an increasing or decreasing hazard over time, though restricted to a monotonic pattern.
A class of tests comparing survival distributions using different weights at different follow-up times, including the log-rank, Peto, and Tarone-Ware tests.
A test comparing survival distributions that gives greater weight to earlier event times than later ones, unlike the standard log-rank test.