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Left Truncation

A survival analysis situation in which individuals are only included once they reach a certain point, such as registry entry, rather than a true start.

Last reviewedDarrin Baines IP Ltd

Concept Architecture

Concept

Theoretically, Left Truncation is a sampling mechanism in survival analysis in which individuals enter observation only if they survive beyond a specified entry time. Events occurring before study entry are unobserved, resulting in delayed inclusion of participants within the risk set. Left truncation is a recognised feature of observational cohorts and registry studies and must be accounted for to obtain unbiased estimates of survival. In health economics, appropriate handling of left truncation is essential when estimating long-term survival for economic models using observational data.

Mathematically, left truncation is represented by conditioning the survival distribution on survival beyond the truncation time. If T denotes the event time and L denotes the delayed entry time, only individuals satisfying T > L are observed. Survival estimation therefore uses modified risk sets in which participants contribute person-time only after their delayed entry, ensuring valid estimation of the survival and hazard functions.

In practice, left truncation is accommodated by recording both study entry time and event or censoring time for each participant. Kaplan?Meier estimators with delayed entry and Cox proportional hazards models using counting-process notation appropriately adjust the risk sets. These adjusted survival estimates are subsequently used in health economic evaluations requiring unbiased estimates of long-term survival.


Purpose

Used to account for delayed entry into survival studies, ensuring unbiased estimation of survival and hazard functions when participants become at risk only after a specified entry time.


Mathematical Formulae

Primary Formula

P(T > t � T > L)

Supporting Formulae

Likelihood contribution:

L? = f(t?) / S(l?)

Conditional survival function:

S(t � T > L) = S(t) / S(L)

Related Mathematical Methods

  • Kaplan?Meier estimation with delayed entry
  • Cox proportional hazards model
  • Counting-process formulation
  • Risk set adjustment
  • Parametric survival modelling
  • Maximum likelihood estimation

Example

A cancer registry includes only patients who survive long enough to be referred to a specialist centre. A patient diagnosed at month 0 enters the registry at month 8 and dies at month 30. Survival analysis accounts for delayed entry by allowing the patient to contribute to the risk set only from month 8 onward. The resulting survival estimates are then used within a cost-effectiveness model.


Excel Implementation

FunctionExample FormulaHealth Economics Application
IF=IF(EventTime>EntryTime,1,0)Identifies observations satisfying delayed entry requirements.
MAX=MAX(0,EventDate-EntryDate)Calculates observed follow-up after delayed entry.
MIN=MIN(EventDate,CensorDate)-EntryDateCalculates survival time from study entry.
FILTER=FILTER(A2:E201,B2:B201>0)Selects participants eligible for left-truncated survival analyses.

VBA (Optional)

Automate construction of delayed-entry risk sets and preparation of left-truncated survival datasets for statistical and health economic modelling.


Sources

  • Andersen PK, Borgan ?, Gill RD, Keiding N. Statistical Models Based on Counting Processes.
  • Klein JP, Moeschberger ML. Survival Analysis: Techniques for Censored and Truncated Data.
  • Therneau TM, Grambsch PM. Modeling Survival Data: Extending the Cox Model.
  • Kaplan EL, Meier P. Nonparametric Estimation from Incomplete Observations.
  • Briggs A, Claxton K, Sculpher M. Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation.
  • NICE. Health Technology Evaluation Manual.

Frequently Asked Questions (6)

  • What is left truncation?

    A survival analysis situation in which individuals are only included once they reach a certain point, such as registry entry, rather than a true start.

    Source: Kalbfleisch & Prentice 2002

  • Why does left truncation exclude those who did not survive to entry?

    Left truncation arises when people enter a study only on reaching some later point, such as registering with a disease registry, so anyone who had the event before that point never appears in the data at all. This differs from censoring, where the individual is known but their exact time is not, since truncated individuals are missing entirely. The analysis must account for it by counting each person as at risk only from their entry, or survival at early times will be overstated. The unseen early events would otherwise bias the estimate. Klein and Moeschberger (2003) describe this.

    Source: Klein & Moeschberger 2003

  • How does left truncation arise?

    Left truncation arises when inclusion in a study requires individuals to survive event-free to a certain point, so that those who experienced the event earlier are excluded and never observed. For example, a registry that enrols patients some time after diagnosis includes only those who survived to enrolment, missing those who died before. Similarly, studies conditioning on reaching a particular age or milestone truncate those who did not. This selective inclusion of survivors, determined by a point later than the true origin, produces left truncation.

    Source: Kalbfleisch & Prentice 2002

  • How is left truncation handled in analysis?

    Left truncation is handled by including individuals in the risk set only from the time they enter observation, rather than from the time origin, so that they contribute to the analysis only over the period they are actually observed and at risk. Methods that account for left truncation adjust the risk set at each event time to include only those already under observation, using their delayed entry times. Handling left truncation this way avoids the bias that would arise from ignoring that included individuals had to survive to enter the study.

    Source: Collett 2015

  • Why must left truncation be accounted for?

    Left truncation must be accounted for because the individuals included had to survive event-free to the point of entry, so they are a selected group of survivors, and treating them as if observed from the time origin would overestimate survival by ignoring those who experienced the event earlier and were excluded. Failing to adjust the risk set for the delayed entry biases the estimates. Because left truncation systematically selects survivors, accounting for it by including individuals only from their entry time is necessary for valid survival estimates.

    Source: Kalbfleisch & Prentice 2002

  • How does left truncation differ from left censoring?

    Left truncation differs from left censoring in what is known: in left truncation, individuals who experienced the event before the entry point are excluded entirely and never observed, so the sample is a selected group of survivors, whereas in left censoring, an individual is included but the event is known only to have occurred before a certain time, not exactly when. So left truncation concerns selective inclusion and requires adjusting the risk set, while left censoring concerns incomplete knowledge of an event time for included individuals. The two are distinct and handled differently in survival analysis.

    Source: Kalbfleisch & Prentice 2002

Trust Record

Verified by Dr Darrin Baines

British health economist

Professional identity: darrinbaines.org

Verification date: 14 Nov 2025

Content version: 1.0.0

Canonical Identity

Term code
HE-ES-CTM-048

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