QALYs by linear interpolation between observations

Estimates the area under the utility curve when utility is observed at time points and assumed to change in a straight line between them, the trapezoidal method used with repeated utility measurements in trials.

Signature

QALY_AUC = sum_(t=1)^T [(u_start_t + u_end_t) / 2 * d_t]
Inputs
InputsDefinitionUnit
u_start_tUtility observed at the start of interval tutility (dimensionless)
u_end_tUtility observed at the end of interval tutility (dimensionless)
d_tTime between the two observations that bound interval tyears
Output
QALY_AUCUndiscounted QALYs estimated as the area under the linearly interpolated utility curveQALYs per person
  • T Number of intervals between consecutive utility observations (count)

Function

Quality-adjusted survival function

Maps a profile of health-state utility over time to quality-adjusted life years, the area under the utility-over-time curve.

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Implementations

  • Excel

    Trapezoidal QALYs

    Excel averages the start and end utility of each interval, multiplies by the interval length in years and adds the products.

    =SUMPRODUCT((StartUtilities+EndUtilities)/2,IntervalYears)

Assumptions

  • Linear change between observations

    Utility moves in a straight line between consecutive measurements. Other interpolation rules can give different totals, so the rule is stated and tested in sensitivity analysis.

  • Contiguous intervals

    The end observation of each interval is the start observation of the next, and together the intervals cover the follow-up period without gaps or overlaps.

  • Baseline utility controlled in trial comparisons

    Baseline utility contributes to the area and is often imbalanced between trial arms, so incremental QALYs are estimated with adjustment for baseline utility, for example by regression.

Worked examples

  • Three observations over one year

    Utility is 0.50 at baseline, 0.70 at six months and 0.80 at twelve months. The first interval contributes the mean of 0.50 and 0.70 multiplied by 0.5 years, which is 0.30 QALYs, and the second contributes the mean of 0.70 and 0.80 multiplied by 0.5 years, which is 0.375 QALYs. The total is 0.675 QALYs.

    T = 2; u_start_t = [0.50,0.70]; u_end_t = [0.70,0.80]; d_t = [0.5,0.5]; QALY_AUC = 0.675

Common errors

  • Ignoring baseline imbalance

    Comparing unadjusted mean areas between trial arms lets chance differences in baseline utility bias incremental QALYs, which can give a misleading ICER.

  • Interpolating silently across a missed visit

    Joining the observations on either side of a missed visit applies the linear-change assumption over a longer interval. The rule is reported and its effect tested rather than left implicit.

Sources

  • Baseline utility in trial-based QALYs

    Manca A, Hawkins N, Sculpher MJ. Estimating mean QALYs in trial-based cost-effectiveness analysis: the importance of controlling for baseline utility. Health Economics. 2005;14(5):487-496.

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  • Review of QALY calculation methods

    Richardson G, Manca A. Calculation of quality adjusted life years in the published literature: a review of methodology and transparency. Health Economics. 2004;13(12):1203-1210.

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  • Methods textbook for area-under-the-curve QALYs

    Drummond MF, Sculpher MJ, Claxton K, Stoddart GL, Torrance GW. Methods for the Economic Evaluation of Health Care Programmes. 4th ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 2015.

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Canonical Identity

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