Expected net health benefit from probabilistic simulations

Averages option j's net health benefit, its simulated health effect minus its simulated cost divided by lambda, over N simulations. The result equals the expected net monetary benefit divided by lambda, so both forms rank options identically at any positive threshold. NICE asks for expected net health benefits alongside ICERs, using £25,000 and £35,000 per QALY.

Signature

ENHB_j = sum_(n=1)^N [E_jn - C_jn / lambda] / N
Inputs
InputsDefinitionUnit
E_jnQALYs of option j in simulation n, listed across all simulationsQALYs per person
C_jnTotal relevant cost of option j in simulation n, listed across all simulationscurrency per person
lambdaValue used to convert cost into health units, the cost at which one QALY is taken to be forgone elsewherecurrency per QALY
NNumber of probabilistic simulations averagedcount
Output
ENHB_jMean across simulations of option j's health effect minus its cost converted to health at lambdaQALYs per person

Function

Expected net benefit function

Maps the joint distribution of an option's uncertain costs and health effects, and a threshold, to the mean of its net benefit. The option with the highest expected net benefit is the one to adopt on current evidence, and the same quantity is the baseline for value of information analysis.

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Implementations

  • Excel

    Expected net health benefit from a simulation table

    Excel subtracts the mean simulated cost divided by the threshold from the mean simulated effect, using the same named ranges as the monetary form.

    =AVERAGE(SimEffects)-AVERAGE(SimCosts)/Threshold

Assumptions

  • Cost expressed as health forgone

    C_jn divided by lambda is the health expected to be given up elsewhere when lambda reflects the opportunity cost of spending, as set out on the cost-effectiveness threshold page. Lambda is greater than zero.

Worked examples

  • Standard care in health units

    Using the same five simulations and a threshold of £25,000 per QALY, standard care A has net health benefits of 5.52, 5.36, 5.68, 5.12 and 5.42 QALYs, with a mean of 5.42 QALYs, which is £135,500 divided by £25,000.

    lambda = 25000; N = 5; E_jn = [6.00,5.80,6.20,5.60,5.90]; C_jn = [12000,11000,13000,12000,12000]; ENHB_j = 5.42
  • New treatment in health units

    New treatment B has a mean net health benefit of 5.508 QALYs at £25,000 per QALY, 0.088 QALYs per patient more than A, the same ranking as in monetary units. At £35,000 per QALY the values are about 5.557 QALYs for A and 5.741 QALYs for B.

    lambda = 25000; N = 5; E_jn = [6.20,6.04,6.48,6.20,6.70]; C_jn = [21000,20000,22000,19000,20000]; ENHB_j = 5.508

Common errors

  • Reading the level of expected net benefit

    The level of expected net benefit for one option depends on which costs are counted and has no absolute meaning. Only differences between options at the same threshold, 0.088 QALYs or £2,200 per patient in the worked examples, inform the decision.

Sources

  • Net health benefits in cost-effectiveness analysis

    Stinnett AA, Mullahy J. Net health benefits: a new framework for the analysis of uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis. Medical Decision Making. 1998;18(2 Suppl):S68-S80.

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  • NICE manual on expected net health benefits

    National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. NICE technology appraisal and highly specialised technologies guidance: the manual (PMG36). Published 31 January 2022, last updated 31 March 2026. Chapter 4 Economic evaluation, section 4.2.16 (expected net health benefits presented as well as ICERs, using values placed on a QALY gain of £25,000 and £35,000; net monetary benefits can also be shown).

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