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Uniform Distribution

A probability distribution in which every value within a defined range is equally likely to occur.

Last reviewedDarrin Baines IP Ltd

Concept Architecture

Concept


Theoretically, Uniform Distribution is a probability distribution in which all values within a specified interval are equally likely to occur. It is one of the fundamental continuous probability distributions and represents complete absence of preference for any value within the defined range. The uniform distribution provides the theoretical basis for random number generation, simulation methods and probabilistic modelling, and is widely used in health economics for probabilistic sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation.

Mathematically, the continuous uniform distribution is characterised by two parameters defining the lower and upper bounds of the interval. Its probability density function is constant across the interval, indicating equal probability density at every point. The distribution possesses simple analytical expressions for its cumulative distribution function, expectation and variance, making it particularly useful for simulation and uncertainty analysis.

In practice, the parameters of a uniform distribution are specified directly from known minimum and maximum values or expert judgement when no additional information regarding the shape of the uncertainty distribution is available. In health economics, uniform distributions are frequently assigned to uncertain model parameters when only plausible lower and upper limits are known, particularly during probabilistic sensitivity analyses and early-stage decision modelling.


Purpose

Used to represent uncertainty when every value within a specified interval is considered equally plausible, supporting simulation, probabilistic sensitivity analysis and random sampling in health economic models.


Mathematical Formulae

Primary Formula

f(x) = 1 / (b ? a),?a � x � b

Supporting Formulae

Cumulative distribution function:

F(x) = (x ? a) / (b ? a),?a � x � b

Expected value:

E(X) = (a + b) / 2

Variance:

Var(X) = (b ? a)� / 12

Related Mathematical Methods

  • Probability Density Function
  • Cumulative Distribution Function
  • Monte Carlo Simulation
  • Random Sampling
  • Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis
  • Inverse Transform Sampling

Example

A health economist is uncertain about the annual administrative cost of implementing a screening programme but knows it lies between �180 and �260 per patient. The parameter is modelled using a uniform distribution:

X ~ U(180, 260)

The expected value is:

E(X) = (180 + 260) / 2 = �220

The variance is:

Var(X) = (260 ? 180)� / 12 = 80� / 12 = 533.33

Random values drawn from this distribution are used in a probabilistic sensitivity analysis to evaluate uncertainty in the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.


Excel Implementation

FunctionExample FormulaHealth Economics Application
RAND=RAND()Generate a random probability between 0 and 1.
Uniform Random Variable=180+(260-180)*RAND()Generate random values from U(180,260) for Monte Carlo simulation.
AVERAGE=AVERAGE(B2:B1001)Estimate the simulated expected value.
VAR.S=VAR.S(B2:B1001)Estimate the simulated variance of sampled values.

VBA (Optional)

Automate Monte Carlo simulations by generating uniform random values for uncertain model parameters across repeated probabilistic sensitivity analyses.


Sources

  • Ross SM. Introduction to Probability Models.
  • Mood AM, Graybill FA, Boes DC. Introduction to the Theory of Statistics.
  • Briggs A, Claxton K, Sculpher M. Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation.
  • Drummond MF, et al. Methods for the Economic Evaluation of Health Care Programmes.
  • ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force Reports.
  • NICE. Health Technology Evaluation Manual.

Library

Publications

1
  • Book

    Bayesian Methods in Health Economics — Gianluca Baio, 1st Edition ed., 2012 (Chapman & Hall / CRC Press)

    An overview of Bayesian statistical methods for the analysis of health economic data, covering economic evaluation concepts, statistical cost-effectiveness analysis, Bayesian computation and MCMC, and applied health economic evaluation.

Frequently Asked Questions (6)

  • What is the uniform distribution?

    A probability distribution in which every value within a defined range is equally likely to occur.

    Source: Casella G, Berger RL. Statistical Inference. 2nd ed. Duxbury; 2002.

  • What does the uniform distribution assume about outcomes in a range?

    The uniform distribution assumes that every value within a defined range is equally likely, so no part of the range is favoured over another. In its continuous form it spreads probability evenly across an interval, as when any point between two limits is equally probable, while its discrete form gives each of a finite set of outcomes the same chance, like a fair die. It suits situations of pure ignorance or genuine equal likelihood, and it serves as a building block for simulation. Equal likelihood across a range is its defining feature. Kirkwood and Sterne (2003) describe this distribution.

    Source: Kirkwood & Sterne 2003

  • What are the properties of the uniform distribution?

    The uniform distribution has a constant probability density over its range for the continuous form, or equal probabilities for each outcome in the discrete form, with a mean at the midpoint of the range and a variance determined by the width of the range. So the uniform distribution's properties include equal likelihood across its range, a mean at the centre, and a spread that increases with the range's width, and these simple properties, reflecting no preference among values within the bounds, are why it is used to represent situations of equal likelihood and as a basis for generating random numbers and other distributions.

    Source: Casella & Berger 2002

  • How is the uniform distribution used?

    The uniform distribution is used in simulation and random number generation, since uniform random values are the basis for generating draws from other distributions; as a model for situations where all outcomes in a range are equally likely; and, in Bayesian analysis, sometimes as a simple prior representing no preference among values. So the uniform distribution is used wherever equal likelihood across a range is appropriate or as a foundational tool, particularly in Monte Carlo simulation, where uniform random numbers are transformed to produce values from other distributions, which is why it is fundamental to computational statistics as well as a model of pure randomness within bounds.

    Source: Casella & Berger 2002

  • What is the difference between continuous and discrete uniform distributions?

    The continuous uniform distribution assigns equal probability density to every value in a continuous range, so any value between the limits is equally likely, while the discrete uniform distribution assigns equal probability to each of a finite set of outcomes, such as the equal chances of a fair die's faces. So the two differ in whether the outcomes are continuous or discrete, with the continuous form having a flat density over an interval and the discrete form equal probabilities for each of a set of values, and both share the defining feature of equal likelihood, applied to a continuum or a finite set respectively.

    Source: Casella & Berger 2002

  • When is the uniform distribution appropriate?

    The uniform distribution is appropriate when there is no reason to favour any value over another within a defined range, so all are treated as equally likely, or when modelling pure randomness within bounds, and it is used as a technical tool in simulation. So the uniform distribution is appropriate for representing complete uncertainty or equal likelihood across a range, such as a vague prior expressing no preference or a model of equally likely outcomes, and for generating random numbers, though it is a strong assumption of equal likelihood that is often unrealistic for real data, which is why it is used where that assumption genuinely applies or for computational purposes.

    Source: Casella & Berger 2002

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Verified by Dr Darrin Baines

British health economist

Professional identity: darrinbaines.org

Verification date: 26 Dec 2025

Content version: 1.0.0

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